Pandemic Enrollment Fallout: School District Enrollment Changes Across COVID-19 Response
American Enterprise Institute
July 27, 2022
Key Points
- The COVID-19 pandemic caused the largest enrollment declines in the history of American public schools.
- School districts’ operations explain large differences in 2021–22 enrollments, as districts that spent more of 2020–21 in person saw enrollments rebound, while the districts that were remote longer saw more students leave.
- Enrollment rebounds fell along partisan lines. In 2021–22, most districts that voted for Donald Trump rebounded, while enrollment continued to fall in districts that voted for Joe Biden.
- Schools’ consequential operational decisions stemmed from communities’ cautious or assertive responses to the pandemic, and that broader COVID cultural response drove divergent enrollment changes.
- Districts that spent more of 2020–21 remote face the largest enrollment declines and are more likely to see substantial revenue declines associated with them.
Introduction
In mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic shuttered the nation’s schools for the rest of the school year. The following fall, over 1.2 million K–12 public school students left the public school system—more than one in 37 students. And the pandemic was just getting started. Over the first full pandemic school year—while COVID cases fluctuated dramatically and COVID vaccines eventually emerged—school districts offered a mix of remote, in-person, and hybrid options. By year-end, districts’ sum total of in-person instruction differed dramatically. So did K–12 enrollments in the second pandemic school year.
This report examines the pandemic’s effect on public school enrollment through the 2021–22 school year overall and by district characteristics including instructional offerings. Enrollment changes have serious consequences for school districts in not only student well-being and parent satisfaction but also long-term revenue. These enrollment data represent the aggregation of weighty decisions millions of families across the country made at the kitchen table. The sharp enrollment declines provide a sobering, if interim, answer to the question facing school districts after the dramatic initial pandemic enrollment declines: Will students return to public schools?
This report describes pandemic enrollment changes for 48 states and projects potential revenue implications school districts face. I begin by showing overall enrollment changes over the three years of the pandemic nationally and by state. Next, I describe differences by districts’ in-person instructional offerings in the 2020–21 school year. I provide context for differences by instructional offerings by examining enrollment changes by factors that may have shaped, rather than been shaped by, school districts’ responses. The final section explores the potential fiscal implications enrollment changes could pose for districts.