Russian hostile action against Estonia: Military options
American Enterprise Institute
Key Points
- Russia’s past aggression toward states along its periphery calls into question what action it might take against Estonia.
- This report considers three possible scenarios for military intervention against Estonia in decreasing order of scale: a full-scale military offensive, a limited “land grab,” and an ongoing campaign of subversion with no intent to take or hold territory.
- Continuing prioritization of military and civil resilience for Estonia is both prudent and a sound investment of local and NATO resources.
Introduction
The Western view of nations bordering Russia as independent sovereign states with the right to determine their own foreign policy conflicts with Russia’s view that it must maintain a sphere of influence, including controlling the foreign policy orientation of its neighbors to ensure its own national security. Russia views armed conflict as one of the most likely ways to resolve this contradiction. After Russia’s military interventions in Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria, alarming scenarios for Moscow launching aggression of one form or another in states along Russia’s western periphery are now commonplace.
This analysis presents three possible scenarios for military intervention against Estonia in decreasing order of scale: a full-scale military offensive, a limited “land grab,” and finally, an ongoing campaign of subversion with no intent to take or hold territory.
The scenarios described in this chapter are unlikely in the short term. Yet none of them can be completely ruled out—Russia’s opaque decision-making process, its habitual misunderstanding of the rest of the world, and its inclination to see military adventurism as a reliable means of resolving foreign policy challenges mean that Estonia must be prepared for the worst.
