Trump’s tax reform happened, now what?

At the end of 2017, the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) brought the most sweeping overhaul of the US tax code in decades. A statutory corporate rate cut, individual income tax rate reductions, expansion of the Child Tax Credit, the doubling of the standard deduction, and the implementation of a diverse set of international taxation laws — such as BEAT, FDII and GILT — are notable changes among a variety of additional provisions. Many provisions are set to expire in 2026, but the law made some reforms permanent, such as the corporate rate cut. Upon the passage of the TCJA, projected effects and opinions were diverse and relatively uncertain, even among leading thinkers in the field. Which households would benefit and which would lose — and by how much? Would the corporate rate cut spur the growth that it promised? What about inequality? Revenue effects? How do all of these complex provisions interact, and can we disentangle these effects in both the short and long term?

Today marks more than a year and half since the TCJA’s enactment in January of 2018. In this tax symposium, we aim to ask leading academics, scholars and policy analysts from across the ideological and political spectrum these very questions. Here, we will let these experts tackle these significant questions, explaining the effects of the TCJA as they see them. There may be consensus on the effects of some provisions, but not others. Ultimately, we are encouraging our bloggers to share their knowledge, interpretation of the data and diversity of opinions in order to answer the central question that we’ve all been asking ourselves: “So what’s the deal with that tax law after all?”

For the schedule of writers, click here.

Series introduction by AEI’s Aparna Mathur

As the saying goes, in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes. This is as true today as it was in 1789 when Benjamin Franklin wrote these words in a letter about the newly written Constitution. But while the existence of taxes in the United States may be certain, much is uncertain about the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), the most significant upheaval of our tax code in decades.

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Blogs in this series

Omri Marian | University of California, Irvine School of Law

Omri Marian | University of California, Irvine School of Law

Omri Marian is a tax law professor and the academic director of the Graduate Tax Program at the University of California, Irvine School of Law.

Read Marian's Analysis
Marc Goldwein and Tyler Evilsizer | CRFB

Marc Goldwein and Tyler Evilsizer | CRFB

Marc Goldwein is the senior vice president and senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Tyler Evilsizer is the deputy policy director.

Read Goldwein and Evilsizer's Analysis
Eric Toder | Urban Institute

Eric Toder | Urban Institute

Eric Toder is an institute fellow at the Urban Institute and codirector of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

Read Toder's Analysis
Maya MacGuineas | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Maya MacGuineas | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Maya MacGuineas is the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Read MacGuineas' Analysis
Isabel V. Sawhill | Brookings Institution

Isabel V. Sawhill | Brookings Institution

Isabel V. Sawhill is a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution. Christopher Pulliam is a research analyst with the Center on Children and Families.

Read Sawhill and Pulliam's Analysis
Nicole Kaeding | National Taxpayers Union Foundation

Nicole Kaeding | National Taxpayers Union Foundation

Nicole Kaeding is an economist and vice president of policy promotion at the National Taxpayers Union Foundation.

Read Kaeding's analysis
Mindy Herzfeld | University of Florida Law

Mindy Herzfeld | University of Florida Law

Mindy Herzfeld is a professor of tax law at the University of Florida Levin College of Law and of counsel at Ivins, Phillips & Barker, Chtd.

Read Herzfeld's analysis
Dhammika Dharmapala | University of Chicago Law School

Dhammika Dharmapala | University of Chicago Law School

Dhammika Dharmapala is the Julius Kreeger Professor of Law at the University of Chicago Law School.

Read Dharmapala's analysis
Kimberly Clausing | Reed College

Kimberly Clausing | Reed College

Kimberly Clausing is the Thormund Miller and Walter Mintz Professor of Economics at Reed College.

Read Clausing's analysis
Alan D. Viard | American Enterprise Institute

Alan D. Viard | American Enterprise Institute

Alan D. Viard is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

Read Viard's analysis
Greg Leiserson | Washington Center for Equitable Growth

Greg Leiserson | Washington Center for Equitable Growth

Greg Leiserson is the Director of Tax Policy and Chief Economist at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.

Read Leiserson's Analysis
Alex Brill | American Enterprise Institute

Alex Brill | American Enterprise Institute

Alex Brill is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Read Brill's Analysis
Elaine Maag | Urban Institute

Elaine Maag | Urban Institute

Elaine Maag is a principal research associate at the Urban Institute.

Read Maag's analysis
R. Glenn Hubbard | Columbia Business School and AEI

R. Glenn Hubbard | Columbia Business School and AEI

R. Glenn Hubbard is the John H. Makin Visiting Scholar for 2019–20 at the AEI and a dean emeritus/Russell L. Carson Professor of Economics and Finance at Columbia.

Read Hubbard's Analysis
Leonard E. Burman | Urban Institute and Syracuse University

Leonard E. Burman | Urban Institute and Syracuse University

Len Burman is the Paul Volcker Chair of Behavioral Economics at the Maxwell School of Syracuse University, an Institute Fellow at the Urban Institute, and a Senior Research Associate in the Center for Policy Research

Read Burman's analysis
Martin Sullivan | Tax Analysts

Martin Sullivan | Tax Analysts

Martin Sullivan is the Chief Economist at Tax Analysts.

Read Sullivan's analysis
Kyle Pomerleau | Tax Foundation

Kyle Pomerleau | Tax Foundation

Kyle Pomerleau is the Chief Economist at the Center for Quantitative Analysis at the Tax Foundation.

Read Pomerleau's analysis
William Gale | Brookings Institution

William Gale | Brookings Institution

William Gale is the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy at the Brookings Institution and codirector of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

Read Gale's analysis
Douglas Holtz-Eakin | American Action Forum

Douglas Holtz-Eakin | American Action Forum

Douglas Holtz-Eakin is the founder and President of the American Action Forum.

Read Holtz-Eakin's analysis
Jason Furman | Harvard Kennedy School

Jason Furman | Harvard Kennedy School

Jason Furman is Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Read Furman's analysis
Aparna Mathur | American Enterprise Institute

Aparna Mathur | American Enterprise Institute

Aparna Mathur is a resident scholar in economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

Read Mathur's analysis
Tax reform figure series by Erin Melly

Tax reform figure series by Erin Melly

As a complement to this discussion on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), this post highlights different aspects of the law visually.

Explore the graphics

A panel discussion on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

AEI’s Aparna Mathur moderates a discussion among several tax policy experts from across the ideological spectrum as they debate the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s effects — such as the impact on households, the corporate rate, the impact on inequality, deficit effects, long-term growth, and more. The event will take place on Tuesday, October 22, 2019, from 2:00 pm to 4:00 pm EDT. Click below to register today or view the livestream.

Watch the Event Video

More from AEI Scholars on Tax Reform