Links and quotes for May 18, 2017: Fact-checking, American manufacturing, and more

Checking how fact-checkers check? — Stanford U

Fact-checking has gained prominence as a reformist movement to revitalize truth-seeking ideals in journalism. While fact-checkers are often assumed to code facts accurately, no studies have formally assessed fact-checkers’ performance. I evaluate the performance of two major online fact-checkers, Politfact at Tampa Bay Times and Fact Checker at Washington Post, comparing their interrater reliability using a method that is regularly utilized across the social sciences. I show that fact-checkers rarely fact-check the same statement, and when they do, there is little agreement in their ratings. Approximately, 1 in 10 statements is fact-checked by both fact-checking outlets, and among claims that both outlets check, their factual ratings have a Cohen’s κ of 0.52, an agreement rate much lower than what is acceptable for social scientific coding. The results suggest that difficulties in fact-checking elites’ statements may limit the ability of journalistic fact-checking to hold politicians accountable.

Physician age and outcomes in elderly patients in hospital in the US – BJM “Within the same hospital, patients treated by older physicians had higher mortality than patients cared for by younger physicians, except those physicians treating high volumes of patients.”

Blacksmithing and American Manufacturing, 1850-1870 – NBER 

… using establishment-level data for blacksmiths from the federal censuses of manufactures for 1850, 1860 and 1870, we re-examine that choice and show that blacksmiths were an important, if declining, source of manufactured goods. Moreover, as quintessential artisan shops, a close analysis of their structure and operation helps resolve several key puzzles regarding industrialization in the nineteenth century. As “jacks-of-all-trades,” they were generally masters of none (except for their service activities). Moreover, the historical record reveals that several of those who managed to achieve mastery moved on to become specialized manufacturers of that specific product. Such specialized producers had higher productivity levels than those calling themselves blacksmiths producing the same goods, explaining changes in industry mix and the decline of the blacksmith in manufacturing.

Google, Not the Government, Is Building the Future –  Farhad Manjoo

AI’s next target could be NASA’s mission control –  Ars Technica

Should the Government Guarantee Everyone a Job? –  The Atlantic 

That question feels awfully theoretical, given the slate of dramatic spending cuts pending in the Republican-controlled Congress. Still, it is one that Democrats are starting to ask.

The policy proposal is called a jobs guarantee, and the Center for American Progress—arguably the most influential think tank on the mainstream left—is officially pushing it as of this week. In a new report, CAP calls for a “Marshall Plan for America” to “counter the effects of reduced bargaining power, technical change, globalization, and the Great Recession.” With wages stagnant, the middle class shrinking, and workers without college degrees falling behind, the government should engage in massive infrastructure investment and start a public-employment program, the report argues.

Jimmy Fallon Was on Top of the World. Then Came Trump. – NY Times 

The program is still profitable and strongly supported by advertisers, so if Mr. Fallon faces any crisis, it’s an existential one: What if the broader shift to a more partisan, more openly anti-Trump late-night isn’t temporary? If it has a longer life and a bigger impact than anyone foresees, what does he want his show to be?

As strongly as ever, Mr. Fallon believes it should be a place for a wide swath of viewers to get their entertainment and laughs, and that this philosophy will steer it through a period of intense polarization.

“I don’t want to be bullied into not being me, and not doing what I think is funny,” he said more defiantly. “Just because some people bash me on Twitter, it’s not going to change my humor or my show.” …

“The Tonight Show,” an NBC franchise for more than 60 years, has always had a big-tent spirit since at least 1962, when Johnny Carson succeeded Jack Paar as its host.

“Johnny was an instant success, but a lot of the critics thought, this is not culturally relevant,” said Jay Leno, the longtime “Tonight Show” host who handed off to Mr. Fallon. “Jack Paar would spend 90 minutes with Noël Coward, and Johnny did Art Fern. The stories would say, ‘When is “The Tonight Show” going to stop the silliness and get back to substantive issues?’”

Mr. Fallon is “probably closer to what Johnny was like than anybody in a long time,” Mr. Leno said. “Johnny had a youthful look about him and could play musical instruments and do magic tricks. It was all about mass appeal.” …

Mr. Leno, who was both praised and criticized for his evenhanded approach to political comedy, said that kind of centrism was almost impossible today.

“We live in an era now where if you don’t take sides, both sides hate you,” Mr. Leno said.